Instructions on the general expectations of our semester project can be found within our project instructions PPT file and this VID details how to collect the data just like illustrated in the class. Because this is a math course, the details of formatting are not a major concern (you may use any format as long as it is a proper written report with references) but please ensure to use a consistent format throughout! Perhaps you would like to us this template Please also see the rubric for points details, but the healthy learner should not stress about such details rather focus on utilizing our energy on learning & giving it our best ( trust me I can relate as I often take online class myself ) .
The statistical details are we will be defining what could be viewed as piecewise function, based on the probable outcomes of the future: 1st the economy stays unchanged YoY, 2nd the economy has usual growth 1.1 YoY, and 3rd the grows YoY by a different amount which each student will individually choose
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f(x)=(p1,nogrowthp2,10%growth1−p1−p2,extgrowth)f(x)=(p1,nogrowthp2,10%growth1−p1−p2,extgrowth)
E.G. the probability you will need to define the value of P1P1 which is the likelihood that the economy has no growth, P2P2 for the likelihood that the economy has 1.1 YoY growth. Then the mathematics will define the other value of the function as 1−P1−P21−P1−P2
YOUR REPORT SHOULD ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS
Q1: what is the stock chosen, and why did you choose this stock, namely what reasoning do you have that the company represented by this stock will grow in market share by increasing the number of both new customers & happily returning prior customers.
Q2: a “literature review” – e.g. one or two paragraphs describing the background of what this company is, what it does; in addition some historical data such as prior stock highs/lows
Q3: the values of p1andp2p1andp2 you chose, and the 3rd state of growth. In addition, a brief explanation as to why you chose these values; i.e. defend your real world justification
Q4: your price estimate, and a conclusion. The price estimate should be calculated by using the three individual stock prices from the excell template ( after plugging in the cash flow & number of shares into each sheet ), and then computing by hand the expected value as illustrated in class and defined in the PPT
NOTE: the actual values of p1andp2p1andp2 are not needed within the excell data calculations, only the growth rate
NOTE: in theory the best data to use here would be for your modern economy stock in project part 1, but if that does not have a positive CF you can not use it so in that case you should either use your classical economy stock ( or pick a new one ). IT IS REQUIRED TO USE DATA WITH POSITIVE CF.
SOME TIPS FOR Q4: use the attached excel template and enter the stock’s TTM cashflow into cell C3 of each of the three sheets & the number of shares into cell C# of each of the three sheets, Then by following the instructions in the vid below, to make a valuation of your stock, and explain your decision to offer a “BUY,” or “HOLD” (hopefully not sell) rating in the write up along with some background summary about the company & why it is of interest to you as a, human being, as an investor.
Since each excell sheet output will give you separate and individual solution for the $ value, you will then just compute the expected value
E=$_1*P_1 + $_2*P_2 + $_3*(1- P_1 – P_2 )
where $_1 is the value of the price from the 1st sheet ( no growth), and $_2 is the value of the price from the 2st sheet etc etc, with the P_1 and P_2 being the associated probability values you chose
BE BREIF DON’T RAMBEL, 3 pages is the median length of most professional stock forecast documents in the industry. The majority of your report should focus on: quick intro summary ( w price targer) + answer to Q3 & 4this is
I have done mini project check it out in the attachment try to use the same two companies in the mini proje
