FAMILY NAME:……………..……………………………………….
OTHER NAMES:……..…….…………………..……………………
STUDENT NUMBER:…..…….………..……………………………
By signing below, I am certifying that:
• My calculator complies with the conditions specified below.
• I will only use a mobile phone, if needed, to scan and upload this cover sheet and my answers to this exam after I have
finished writing.
• I am the person whose name I am signing.
• I have not communicated in any way with any other person throughout the time when I completed this exam.
• Macquarie University operates under a ‘Fit to Sit’ model. This means that, in sitting this examination, I am declaring that I
am fit to do so. It is my responsibility to determine whether I am fit to sit this examination. Therefore, if I am feeling unfit
to sit this examination, I will not do so.
• WARNING: A false declaration can lead to you being awarded zero marks for the unit and being referred to the Discipline
Committee where penalties can be very harsh including expulsion from the University.
Signature: …………………………………………………
FORMAL EXAMINATION PERIOD: SESSION 2, NOVEMBER 2020
| Unit Code and Unit Name: | BUSA3015 Business Forecasting |
| Duration of Exam (including reading time if applicable): |
2 hours plus ten minutes reading time, plus 60 minutes for technical issues including accessing, printing, and uploading your examination answers. |
| Exam Date and Start Time: | Friday 20 November 2020 starting at 3:00 pm (Sydney time) |
| Questions and Pages: | This exam has 2 Sections and includes 9 pages (including this cover sheet) |
| GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS TO STUDENTS: • These instructions should be read in conjunction with information relating to accessing your exam, scanning and uploading your answers provided on the iLearn page for this unit. • Students must access the exam on the iLearn page for this unit on the Exam Date and at the Start Time specified above. By downloading the exam paper you are declaring that you are fit to sit this examination. • Students must spend the first ten minutes of the exam reading the exam questions. You are NOT permitted to write during this time. • Students must use the remaining time to answer the Section A by calculating the answers and inputting this using an iLearn quiz tool, and typing the answers to Section B into a DOC file or similar and converting it into a PDF for submission via a Turn-It-In link on iLearn. • If, and only if, you are unable to upload your answers to the iLearn page, you should send it by email to prashan.karunaratne@mq.edu.au before the exam time ends. Include your full name and student ID in this email. • You must begin the exam at the given start time. The exam will close 3 hours and 10 minutes after the start time and submissions will not be accepted after this time except for cases where an application for special consideration is made and approved. If you commence the exam after the given start time you will have less time to complete it as the exam will close 3 hours and 10 minutes (i.e. 6:10 pm) after the start time specified above. • You may only attempt this exam once. • Please ensure that you have checked your internet connectivity prior to the start time for this exam. You are advised to print or download the pdf file which contains the exam questions at the commencement of the exam. • Students may only access authorised materials during this examination. A list of authorised material is available on this cover sheet. • If it is alleged you have breached these rules at any time during the examination, the matter may be reported to a University Discipline Committee for determination. |
EXAMINATION INSTRUCTIONS:
There are two sections to this examination, Sections A and B. Section A is worth 45 marks, and Section B is worth 15 marks.
The marks total to 60 – this exam is worth 50% of your overall assessment in BUSA3015.
Submission instructions are at the beginning of each section.
| | The answers to Section A are to be submitted by typing your answers using an iLearn Quiz Tool – just as you did for Exercises 1 & 2 of Report 1 & Report 2. The answers to Section B are to be typed into a PDF and submitted using a Turn-It-In Submission Link in iLearn – just as you did for Exercise 3 of Report 1 & Report 2. |
| |
If students experience a personal, illness, technical or logistical difficulty whilst sitting an exam they can contact the Exams
Support Hotline on 1800 MQ EXAM (1800 67 39 26) or International +61 2 9850 2700.
AIDS AND MATERIALS PERMITTED/NOT PERMITTED:
Non-programmable calculators permitted. Calculations may not be performed using a computer or any other device.
This is an open book exam. You may refer to notes and other printed resources. A Formulae Sheet isprovided.
2 | P a g e
Formulas
Naïve model
Ft = Yt-1
MA(q)
Ft = (1/q) Yt-1+Yt-2+Yt-3…+Yt-q
SES (α)
Ft = α* Y t-1 + (1-α) * F t-1
ARRSES
Ft = αt Yt-1 + (1 – αt) Ft-1
αt = |St/At|
St = β * et + (1 – β) * St-1 (Smoothed Error)
At = β * |et| + (1 – β) * At-1 (Absolute Smoothed Error)
et = Yt – Ft
Holt’s Exponential Smoothing
Lt = αYt + (1 – α) (Lt-1 + Tt-1)
Tt = β(Lt – Lt-1) + (1 – β)(Tt-1)
Ft+m = Lt + mTt
Trend-fitting
Yt = a + b * t
Winters Exponential Smoothing
(Additive)
Lt = α(Yt – St-s) + (1 – α)(Lt-1 + Tt-1)
Tt = β(Lt – Lt-1) + (1 – β)(Tt-1)
St = γ(Yt – Lt) + (1 – γ)(St-s)
Ft+p = Lt +Ttp + St+p-s
Winters Exponential Smoothing
(Multiplicative)
Lt = α(Yt / St-s) + (1 – α)(Lt-1 + Tt-1)
Tt = β(Lt – Lt-1) + (1 – β)(Tt-1)
St = γ(Yt / Lt) + (1 – γ)(St-s)
Ft+p = (Lt +Ttp) x St+p-s